ZB.com was invited to MiLin’s AMA of six countries and talked about which assets can outperform BTC in 2020
On March 3, 2020, MiLin Finance’s AMA, which was live broadcasting of six countries, was successfully held and guests Omar, CEO of ZB.com and co-founder of ZBG.com, and Qu Ming, founder of Quest Capital were invited to talk about the topic of which asset can outperform BTC in 2020.
The following is the full dialogue of the AMA:
Host: Tan Lin
Guests: Omar, Qu Ming
Tan Lin: Hi everyone! Welcome to the MiLin Super Train! I am TanLin, the founder of MiLin Finance and the conductor of this Train.
There are a variety of black swan events happened from the beginning of this year. The 2019-nCoV epidemic occurred and affects many countries around the world, the loss of Kobe Bryant, a series of unfortunate events happened that many people are calling for a restart in 2020. As the epidemic spread across the globe, global stock markets plummeted. However, the world’s major asset performance statistics from the beginning of 2020 to the present which is released CICC(China International Capital Corporation Limited), China’s first joint-venture investment bank, showing that Bitcoin ranks first by the investment return. Have you took a investment onto BTC? What assets might outperform BTC in 2020? Today, MiLin Finance invites two special guests who have Chinese, English, Japanese, Korean, Russian, and Malaysian languages background to overtake us in the crypto investment track. Here we have Mr. Omar, CEO of ZB.com and Mr. Qu Ming, founder of QUEST CAPITAL. Welcome!
Q1: Mr. Qu Ming has been ploughing in the field of mining for many years. Everyone knows that BTC will be halved in May this year. What kind of impact will the BTC halved have on the miners? Is the BTC price closely related to the cost of BTC mining? After the BTC halving, how much will the mining cost of BTC, and what’s the number of what it was before? Will the cost be double? Mr. Qu, please share your ideas, thanks.
Qu Ming: Sure. It must be very tense for the miners, and there might be a possibility of a mine disaster. The price of BTC on the exchange is related to the mining cost, but the mining cost cannot determine the BTC price. After the BTC halving, the mining costs will be different for different miners. The cost of using S9 miners cannot be compared with using S17 miners. According to the expected increase in difficulty, the mining cost after the halving will be two or three times the normal range. If the price does not rise steadily in the future, and as the mining revenue declines, the mining power withdraws from BTC mining, that the computing power may stop rising, and the increase in mining costs will not be relatively high.
Q2: Hello Omar, what effect will Bitcoin halving have on the price of Bitcoin? What’s your opinion on this year’s BTC market, what range do you think the price of BTC will be?
Omar: From a historical perspective, if you look back at history, you will find that the BTC price went up every halving. This has almost become a rule of inertia, and I believe this time will be no exception. Because Bitcoin is currently the most successful blockchain application and the consensus engine of the crypto space. Output reduction, costs rising and historical trends together have caused Bitcoin halving to gain more attention than ever. You can also look at the historical chart of Bitcoin’s price. From November 28, 2012, the first halving produced 25 BTC every 10 minutes, 12.5 BTC for the second halving on July 10, 2016, and 6.25 BTC for the third halving in May 2020.
The safe-haven nature of Bitcoin has been hotly debated. As an alternative asset, Bitcoin is sometimes regarded by the market as having the same anti-inflation and safe-haven properties as gold.
From the perspective of commodities, this year we will see the BTC halving and the number of mainstream currencies such as BCH, BSV, ETC, and DASH halving, which may have a good good boost to the BTC price.
In fact, it is difficult to do the specific price prediction. Many opinions are adjusted according to the market at any time, and the market is constantly changing. I personally think that the near future will continue to be a volatile market and the long-term bull market view remains unchanged, but I cannot tell the amplitude and time. $ 10,500 is a relatively strong pressure, and the pressure gradually decreases after $ 10,800.
In addition to BTC, the mainstream currencies such as ETC, BCH, BSV, and DASH will also perform halving this year, which is also the focus of many crypto investors’ attention recently. There is an old saying in China: “Less is more.” So, what is the logic of price increases of the halving currencies? Will the halving definitely cause the rise of the currency price?
Qu Ming: The previous halving cycles all had bull market within months of BTC halving. If we talk about the logic, I think the logic is that in the relationship between supply and demand, prices will rise when output and supply decrease and demand remains unchanged. The price rises will bring positive feedback that the further increase in demand leads to further increases in prices. Finally, the demand can not keep up, and the bull market will end without more willing buyers. Therefore, I think that what really causes the change in supply and demand will happen after the halving, and the real halving market will come after the halving. I think this logic can also explain that the previous bull markets all came after halving. The market reaction requires everyone’s patience. Whether the halving will increase the price of the currency is determined by market demand. The cost of mining will increase substantially after the number of mining incentives decreases, the price will increase theoretically, but in essence there is no causal relationship between the increase of mining cost and price increase
Q4: In fact, the hot spots in February were almost covered by exchange tokens, including the news about Fcoin, the skyrocketing OKB, ZB Token and other exchange tokens? What’s your opinion on exchange tokens?
Omar: In my opinion, exchange token is more like the brokerage stocks in the stock market. Choosing a suitable exchange token depends on the core strategy of its exchange strategy. The economic model directly determines the inflation and deflation curve of circulation valuation.
1. Good fundamentals: this depends on the number of users, profitability of the exchange, exchange token economic model, and etc.;
2. Timely grasp the hotspots of the market: either products or promotion, the exchange is able to grasp the hotspots, and make users feel the vitality of the platform through various activities and marketing;
3. Reasonable valuation: If you want more reliable returns, you can choose a head exchange.
ZB token has a good performance in this round of market. Since ZB.com is rarely do publicity, Chinese users may not know that ZB token is one of the top exchange tokens selected in the “According to CoinMarketCap 2019” report. CMC selected the exchange tokens of 4 top established exchanges, and one of the emerging derivatives exchange token as the report.
Regarding the recent announcements of the burning of exchange tokens by many crypto exchanges, I personally think it can be viewed in two ways. The exchange token is actually only a tool to assist the platform and its value comes from what the exchange have done. Therefore, only the old platforms with good business operations burn their tokens can bring a positive effect. The new platform do this may not make much sense. In other words, the linkage of large exchanges can really catalyze this. After all, exchange tokens are similar to the brokerage stocks in the traditional market and are a sign of bullishness.
Q5: Other mainstream cryptos such as ETH, BSV are good performance in this round of bull market, even outperformed BTC. From a one-year cycle, do you think which crypto can outperform BTC and deserve our attention?
Omar: With the ongoing halving market, small mining coins have led the market. Recently, BTC, BCH, ETC and other cryptos have begun to become the leaders and their prices started to rise. Personally, I think to analyze the investable possibility of a project, mainly to see whether the value of the project is undervalued and whether it has actually landed or solved the existing problems. In addition, it is also necessary to pay attention to whether its distribution mechanism is fair, whether its community consensus is strong, and whether the technical capabilities are strong.
For example, the use of scenarios of a game-related currency will be greatly increased with the launch of their games. There are also some projects have implemented anonymous stablecoin in function and working on a decentralized predictor and so on.
Since this January, the anonymous coins such as Dash, Monero, and Zcash have led the market, with the average increase of nearly 50% higher than BTC. Dash and Zcash and Monero have monthly increases of 178%, 151% and 58%, respectively, which are 6 times, 5 times and 2 times of BTC. There is also an annual increase of 122.37% of ZB token, the exchange token of ZB.com, which also far exceeds the increase of BTC. Some new hot spots gathering in the market, and the combination of BTC and these hot spots should be a more active strategy.
Qu Ming: There are many POW currencies will have halving this year, such as BCH, BSV, DASH, ETC, BEAM, DASH, ZCOIN and ZCASH. The computing power will surely flood into the currency with the greatest benefit. If the BTC price is not high after its halving, then the computing power that may exit and will enter into BCH and BSV. In this case, BCH and BSV will have a price competition. Similarly, If other currencies want to succeed, they need to exceed BTC in gains. BCH and BSV are also very noteworthy before BTC halving, because the two currencies will occurred halving earlier than BTC.
Q6: The landing of the blockchain has been receiving much attention. There is even a voice in the industry that this epidemic will actually accelerate the development of the blockchain industry. Which blockchain innovation directions are you optimistic about?
Qu Ming: The long-term and stable development of the blockchain industry requires applications that can make sense to humans. At present, it seems that there is a good start in finance space such as cross-border transactions, some e-commerce platforms applied blockchain technology, and even some e-commerce platforms have supported digital currency payments or rebated digital assets.
Distributed storage is also a good development direction. The essence of decentralization is to remove the middlemen. During this epidemic, we watched the movie “Lost in Russia” on the mobile phone without going to the cinema. In fact, the essence of the cinema is a middleman. The mobile app was used to show the movie to the audiences. In future, there might be a small number of films directly allow the parties involved in film investment and production to directly trade with the audience without the intermediaries, although this assumption is subject to various restrictions and is a long process. The same principle can be applied to other industries. After fully moving towards the web 3.0 era, there will be many spaces that need to use blockchain technology.
Omar: Many problems concerning in this epidemic, those related areas are likely to give birth to blockchain technology + new business opportunities. For example, cloud services benefit from the popularity of remote offices and the increase of online education. Cloud computing will grow rapidly, and the business of IDC infrastructure will increase.
China is the most developed country for O2O scenario application, and is the earliest country to build 5G networks on a large scale. Therefore, based on a good network infrastructure, some application scenarios of “blockchain +” may be spawned, such as “telemedicine + blockchain medical records storage” and “blockchain + games”, which is more likely to prompt government agencies to use blockchain technology to solve problems of the efficiency of administration and so on. Another example is the management of public opinion that the anonymity of the blockchain is required to ensure the information is timely and transparent.
Tan Lin: Thanks our two guests for the wonderful sharing. Let’s move forward to our Q&A session. Welcome our community friends to ask questions directly by @ our guest who you want to ask questions, thank you.
Question for Omar
Most traders lost a lot of money in the bear market before the BTC price under $3000 USD, and some exchanges launched contracts afterwards, some traders with only a little bit of funds were liquidated by contracts. Why hasn’t ZB.com launched futures contract with 100x or 20x?
Omar: In the current contract market, downtime and price slump are undoubtedly the biggest challenge to contract users and exchanges. There have been several cases where contract exchanges have experienced price slump under extreme conditions.
For futures contracts, the price of the futures contract will gradually move closer to the spot as it approaches the delivery day until the two prices remain consistent, especially before and after the delivery day which gives some large households a very easy time to manipulate the market. However, perpetual contract has eliminated this situation without the delivery day, greatly reducing the possibility of manipulate the market. We have recently made strategic adjustments in this regard. ZBG, the global innovative sub-exchange of ZB.com, recently launched a futures contract trading system. ZBG is the first exchange that under the 7-year-old exchange ZB.com to launch contract trading.
With mature technology, stable and secure system and sufficient transaction liquidity, ZBG provides and upgrades the current hottest perpetual contract mechanism. ZBG Perpetual Contract Trading launched the forward contracts (Fiat currency standard) that are more consistent with Chinese users’ operating habits. At the same time, ZBG uses fair index prices, anchoring the spot prices of 80 global exchanges, and create a more user-friendly protection mechanism, which will improve the stability of the contract market, ensure the fairness of the trading environment, and reduce unnecessary liquidation of market fluctuations. The fair fund rate mechanism has the lowest fund rate in the entire network. It will return 50% of the remaining margin after the perpetual contract transaction is liquidated,.
Question for Qu Ming
In 2017, digital currency industry has created many people’s dream of wealth. Will this wealth effect continue in the future? What opportunities will BTC halving bring to digital currency investment?
Qu Ming:There will always have industries and opportunities that create wealth dreams. For example, this epidemic has also created some wealth dreams, but they are very different from the way to earn income through Bitcoin. According to the previous bull market, we can see some bull market after the halving. It is believed that the law of prices will be cyclical, but there are risks associated with opportunities for wealth growth. We can see that the contract trading volume in the exchanges have greatly exceeded the spot trading. With this situation continues, the options contract may be sought after by investors with professional knowledge, experience and technology.